Maersk has warned shippers in East Africa to brace for transport and port delays extending through December 2026. The carrier attributes the alert to above-average rainfall predictions for the October–December season, which may hinder operations at critical ports and terminals.
According to the October 6 advisory, heavy rains and localized flooding could cut off road access to ports, terminals, and storage depots. This disruption may delay imports, exports, and transit shipments across the region, including those destined for neighboring countries. The company also anticipates extended truck turnaround times and terminal congestion, increasing the risk of missed vessel cut-offs and shipment rollovers.
The forecast aligns with the October–December outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, which expects wetter-than-normal conditions across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. The center identified a 90% likelihood of increased rainfall in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya. These conditions result from a strengthening El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
Maersk’s warning states that flooding and road damage could prolong transit times, restrict truck movements, and reduce vehicle availability. These factors may lead to longer terminal queues, making it difficult for exporters to meet vessel deadlines. Severe weather could also slow or halt cargo handling when safety conditions are compromised, further reducing yard efficiency and vessel loading rates.
Delays in cargo collection and onward transport could raise terminal occupancy and container dwell times, particularly at Mombasa Port, which processes roughly 2.1 million TEUs annually. As a gateway for landlocked nations, including Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern DRC, and South Sudan, disruptions in the region would have far-reaching consequences.
To reduce risks, Maersk advises shippers to allow additional transit time, especially for time-sensitive cargo traveling through flood-prone zones. Exporters should deliver goods ahead of terminal cut-offs, submit shipping instructions and customs documentation promptly, and verify road access, truck availability, and receiving capacity before dispatch. Importers are encouraged to expedite clearance wherever possible.